Our Monthly Newsletter

Market Overview

April showed early signs of recovery, but conditions remained uneven across the market. Improving volume in select sectors is being offset by softer imports and slowing global manufacturing, creating a more volatile operating environment.

Capacity

Capacity is beginning to tighten, though not from a traditional demand driven cycle. Increased DOT and FMCSA enforcement, along with stricter CDL requirements, are  removing non compliant carriers and drivers from the market, reducing overall truck capacity. This is leading to a gradual contraction in available capacity, particularly among smaller fleets.

The result is a less predictable coverage landscape, where capacity can shift quickly depending on lane, equipment type, and compliance requirements.

Demand

Freight demand is showing mixed signals. Certain sectors, including retail and seasonal produce, are seeing stronger activity, while import volumes and industrial freight remain softer.

Freight Market Insights reported,

“Container imports are expected to recover to 1.97 million TEUs in April 2026, but this still represents a 10.9 percent decline year-over-year.”

This imbalance is creating a fragmented market where some lanes are tightening while others remain relatively loose. As a result, pricing and service levels are becoming increasingly inconsistent across regions.

Rates and Costs

Upward pressure on rates is building as operating costs continue to rise. Reuters reported diesel prices have increased $1.89 or 50% since the start of the war, driving higher fuel surcharges across both truckload and parcel networks. This cost pressure is beginning to push rate floors higher, particularly in fuel sensitive and longer haul lanes.

As of today, U.S. fleets on average spent $5.52 per gallon on diesel, surpassing the prior all-time high of $5.50 set in June 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

“Not one firm had $5.60 a gallon diesel on their proverbial budget bingo card for 2026” said Jason Miller, a supply chain professor at Michigan State University.

In addition to fuel, carriers are facing increased costs tied to equipment, insurance, and compliance. Overall truckload costs are projected to rise in the mid teens year over year range, even as demand recovery remains gradual.

Seasonal Trends

The transition from Yuma to Salinas is underway, bringing the expected seasonal shift in produce volumes. This is increasing demand for refrigerated equipment, particularly on outbound California lanes moving into the Midwest and Northeast.

As a result, reefer capacity is tightening in key produce regions, with short term upward pressure on rates expected to continue through the transition. The current reefer linehaul  average is $2.39 per mile which is up 27% from last years rate.

DAT reported “Salinas-Watsonville opened at Slight Shortage with first-report rates to Baltimore at $9,200–$9,800 and Philadelphia at $9,400–$10,000 on broccoli, cauliflower, lettuce (Boston, green leaf, iceberg, red leaf, romaine), and strawberries. The Philly lane touching $10,000 out of the gate signals tight Central Coast capacity from day one. This is the seasonal inflection point that will reshape California reefer allocation through summer.”

Outlook

The market is moving out of the prolonged downturn, but the recovery is not linear. Instead of a demand driven rebound, current conditions are being shaped by rising costs, regulatory pressure, and global instability.

The result is a more volatile environment where capacity is tightening and rates are increasing, even as demand remains uneven. Shippers should expect continued variability in both pricing and service levels as the market continues to adjust.