October Market Update

As we head into the fall season, freight markets are showing a mix of seasonal pressures, softening demand, and localized capacity constraints. While some sectors, like full truckload and reefer freight, are holding steady, overall volumes remain below pre-pandemic peaks. Shippers and carriers should plan carefully for upcoming holidays, seasonal trends, and regional events that may impact capacity and rates.
Truckload Market
In Arrive’s Market Update, muted demand is expected into early Q4. Most retail imports are already in place, and forecasts suggest continued pullbacks. If the tariff-driven rebound from early September is ending, the risk is for sharper volume declines. Manufacturing remains weak even as new orders show modest improvement. Occasional spikes from weather or holidays may trigger short-lived volatility in the TL market, but without a sustained demand rebound, gains are unlikely to stick.
Capacity should stay steady through early Q4. A key risk is that truck orders have stayed below replacement levels for months. That doesn’t hurt yet, but if demand returns, it could constrain equipment availability down the line. The near-term forecast is stable through year-end, though retail peak season and hurricane risk remain wildcard factors. Typically, volatility returns in late November and December which is still expected to be muted in 2025.
Reefer Market
DAT reported national reefer demand reflected seasonal pressures last week. Load posts increased 2 % week-over-week, representing a 35% gain year-over-year, though volumes remain in line with pre-pandemic averages for this period. At the same time, available equipment posts declined by 12%, driving the reefer load-to-truck ratio to 11.39.
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Spot market pricing trended upward nationally as well. The average for all reefer PFF zones increased by one cent to $2.01 per mile, marking a four-cent gain compared to the same time last year.
For produce-specific freight, USDA reported an average rate of $3.70 per mile. While this was down two cents week-over-week, it remains roughly 15 cents higher than the prior year. USDA also noted an adequate supply of trucks across all 13 monitored growing regions last week.
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Overall, reefer demand is running ahead of last year and tightening in key seasonal markets, particularly in North Carolina and the Northeast. With the Thanksgiving holiday approaching, shippers should anticipate continued pressure on reefer capacity and prepare for higher rates in the coming weeks.
Dry Van Market
Dry van load activity reflected tightening conditions last week. National load posts rose 4% to surpass one million, a 25% increase compared to the same week last year. At the same time, equipment posts dropped 12%, pushing the national dry van load-to-truck ratio to 6.69. Capacity was particularly constrained in Illinois, where brokers reported very tight conditions on regional lanes. The load-to-truck ratio in the state averaged 4.0, peaking near 6.0 midweek.
Dry van linehaul spot rates nationally rose modestly, gaining just under $0.02 per mile to average $1.67 per mile, $0.05 higher than the same week in 2024. DAT’s top 50 dry van lanes by load volume averaged $1.98 per mile, down $0.01 week-over-week but still $0.31 higher than the national seven-day rolling average. In the Midwest, which accounts for 46 percent of national dry van volume and often sets the tone for national trends, spot rates were unchanged last week. Carriers in the 13 key Midwest states averaged $1.87 per mile, a figure that remains $0.20 above the national rolling average.
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Cass Freight Index Insights
Cass Freight Index shows that freight shipments in North America fell slightly in August. Down 1.5% from July and 9.3% lower than last year. This continues a long-term trend of declining shipments, especially in LTL freight, while full truckload and intermodal/container shipments are actually up from August of 2024. After years of big gains in 2021 and 2022, shipments have dropped in 2023 and 2024, and 2025 is looking like another down year. For September, Cass expect shipments to be about 7% lower than last year, following normal seasonal patterns. It is important to note that Cass Freight Index only takes North American domestic freight into consideration and captures the broad freight economy, while DAT’s reefer/dry van data highlights pockets of strength despite the broader slowdown.
The total money spent on freight fell 2.8% from July and was slightly below last year’s level. Even though fewer shipments moved, the average cost per shipment increased by nearly 10% year-over-year. That’s mostly because more freight is moving as full truckloads, which cost more per shipment than LTL.
Freight volumes and rates were improving late 2024 and early 2025, but growth has slowed because tariffs and trade disruptions are still impacting demand. Overall, volumes remain soft.
In the Transportation Index Report, Cass states

“The economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. But the silver lining of lower heavy vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market eventually.”

Diwali Week Capacity Impact
Starting October 20th, many Sikh drivers in California, especially in the Stockton freight market, will take time off to celebrate the Diwali Festival, a five-day holiday marking the “festival of lights.” This annual event occurs each fall after the summer harvest and typically results in a noticeable reduction in truckload capacity in affected regions.
The Stockton market is not the only area impacted. San Antonio, Texas, which hosts the country’s largest city-sanctioned Diwali celebration, is also expected to see a dip in available truckload capacity. Shippers may want to pre-position loads or adjust delivery schedules to account for potential delays, as workforce availability will be reduced during this week.
Key Takeaways
  • Truckload demand remains soft but stable, with potential equipment constraints if demand returns.
  • Reefer freight is experiencing seasonal tightening, especially in key produce regions, with rates trending upward.
  • Dry van capacity is tightening, particularly in the Midwest and Illinois, while rates remain modestly higher than last year.
  • Economic headwinds such as inflation, tariffs, and slower manufacturing growth continue to cap upside demand.
  • Cass Index trends reinforce a slow-growth environment, though TL volumes and limited private fleet expansion offer some support for the for-hire market.
  • Regional events like Diwali may cause short-term capacity reductions and should be factored into planning.