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As April came to a close, shifting seasonal demand and macroeconomic pressures are reshaping the freight landscape. From a surge in perishable freight to warning signs in the dry van sector, here are the key developments impacting the truckload market.

Truckload Market

April witnessed an unexpected downturn in overall truckload demand, deviating from the typical seasonal uptick associated with spring shipping. This decline is attributed to several factors: elevated inventory levels, uncertainties surrounding new tariffs, and general seasonal fluctuations. Despite the drop in tender volumes, reported tender rejection rates have remained relatively stable, assuming this is coming from the mass exodus of carriers we have seen over the last two years.

Key metrics include:

• Tender rejection rate: 5.35% (up 151 basis points year-over-year)
• Average dry van spot rate: $2.21/mile (down 0.9% year-over-year)
• Outbound Tender Volume Index: Down 12.45% year-over-year and 5.3% month-over-month

Regional tender volumes also saw significant declines:

• Atlanta: -12.7%
• Dallas: -14.4%
• Los Angeles: -24.8%
• Chicago: -21.3%

These figures indicate a challenging environment for carriers, with reduced volumes and persistent rate pressures. Reefer spot rates saw a seasonal lift, but dry van rates have remained flat, signaling uneven strength across equipment types which is typical to expect, especially with produce season pulling capacity out of the West Coast.

Reefer Market

Strawberry season is in full swing, with California’s central coast driving a substantial volume of reefer freight. According to DAT Freight & Analytics, reefer load-to-truck ratios surged to 9.92 during Week 17 which is the highest level for this time of year in nine years.

Spot rates climbed to $1.90 per mile excluding fuel, up 6 cents week-over-week, driven by strong produce shipments and increased demand from the Southeast and West Coast.

“This is a significant shift from the lull we saw earlier this year,” notes Dean Croke, Principal Analyst at DAT.

Meanwhile, Mother’s Day floral shipments are blooming, especially through Miami, which handles nearly 89% of U.S. floral imports. Carriers are implementing temporary surcharges on outbound Florida freight. 10% from Florida and up to 20% from California between April 24 and May 7.

“Expect outbound Miami volumes to rise sharply as the holiday nears,” DAT reports.

Another thing to keep into consideration is May 13–15, DOT’s annual Blitz Week will bring 72 hours of roadside inspections across North America, with a focus on hours-of-service compliance and tire safety. Many drivers are expected to park their trucks during this period to avoid potential violations, which could tighten capacity.

Dry Van Market

Dry van markets experienced a mini recovery in Q1 but have shifted since April. DAT highlights that Week 17 van load-to-truck ratios hit 4.95 which is the highest for that week in nine years. However, average spot rates remained flat at $1.59 per mile excluding fuel. But that recovery may be short-lived.

According to new projections, import volumes are expected to plunge in May, reversing a 19-month growth streak. The National Retail Federation forecasts a 20.5% YoY drop in container imports, with continued softness into the summer.

“Carriers and shippers alike should brace for muted demand as international trade decelerates,” warns DAT.

Intermodal Sector

While the intermodal sector had previously gained market share from trucking, it is now facing headwinds. This downturn is closely linked to the reduction in maritime imports, which directly impacts intermodal freight movement. The frontloading of imports has eliminated time sensitivity of many shipments and has used rail as a means to keep inventory without paying for additional warehousing. Freightwaves reported intermodal volumes are up 3.6% y/y but have already fallen 2.9% m/m.

Maritime Freight

After a sharp decline in early March, ocean container rates have stabilized. However, the overall demand remains subdued, primarily due to aggressive U.S. tariff policies. Optimistic forecasts predict a 10% decline in volumes compared to the previous year, with some analysts suggesting even greater reductions. The decrease in import bookings is expected to first impact drayage markets and intermodal demand before affecting truckload volumes.

Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

The freight industry faces a period of heightened uncertainty, influenced by policy decisions and shifting economic indicators. The full impact of the U.S.’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods, implemented in early April, is yet to be realized. Shippers had proactively increased imports ahead of the tariff, leading to a temporary boost in warehousing and intermodal activity. However, this frontloading has not translated into sustained truckload demand.

Key Takeaways

• Truckload: Spring demand dipped unexpectedly due to high inventories and tariff uncertainty. Drop in tender volumes and tender rejection rates have remained relatively stable.
• Reefer: Produce season is heating up. Week 17 reefer demand hit a 9-year high. Mother’s Day shipments are up, especially out of Miami, with surcharges in play.
• Blitz Week: DOT inspections (May 13–15) may tighten capacity as drivers avoid violations.
• Dry Van: Momentum from Q1 fizzled; import volumes projected to drop sharply in May.
• Intermodal: Falling import volumes are dragging down both domestic and international intermodal freight.