Our Monthly Newsletter

As we roll into June, transportation markets continue to shift under the pressure of seasonal demand, macroeconomic forces, and evolving trade dynamics. Here’s a look at what’s moving across van, reefer, intermodal, and maritime.

Dry Van

The JOC reported that the Truckload Capacity Index dipped to 74.9%, the lowest since 2014. It looks like large truckload carriers are trimming their fleets to match the leaner demand. Following Roadcheck Week, dry van load volumes dropped over 11%. Spot rates held steady(ish) at $1.70/mile the last week of May, with the Midwest seeing $1.91/mile, $0.21 higher than the national average.

FreightWaves reported dry van tender volumes are down 9.1% year-over-year, with major markets like Los Angeles and Chicago seeing significant drops. Spot rates started the year at $2.53/mile but dropped to $2.24/mile by the end of Q1. The quarterly average was $2.35/mile, flat compared to Q4 2024. Q2 spot rates are projected to decline by 3% to 7% from Q1, potentially falling below year-ago levels.

In FreightWaves 2025 Q2 Shipper Rate Report it was stated:

“It is a near certainty that Q1’s growth in imports reflected shippers’ anxieties over a multifront trade war, and that this early growth came at the cost of 2025’s traditional peak season.”

Contract rates remain elevated relative to spot, but this spread is expected to compress over the coming quarter.

Reefer

Watermelons are rolling out from Florida, Texas, and Georgia. Last week, reefer load volumes dipped 25%, while truck postings rose 5%. The load-to-truck ratio dropped 31% to 10.65, still the second-highest for Week 21 in nine years. Spot rates slid by $0.03 to $2.02/mile.

According to USDA data, truck availability across most major produce-shipping regions remains balanced. Key California markets—including Salinas-Watsonville, Oxnard, Santa Maria, and the Central Coast—reporting adequate capacity. Some regions, such as Mexico crossings through South Texas, the Columbia Basin in Washington, and the Yakima Valley & Wenatchee District, are seeing a surplus of trucks, indicating lighter outbound demand or excess capacity. Slight surpluses are reported in South and Central Florida, Idaho’s Upper Valley region, and parts of Washington. Notably, no areas are experiencing truck shortages at this time, pointing to a relatively soft market and accessible capacity across the board.

While Florida and Texas are seeing elevated produce volumes and pressure on outbound reefer rates, USDA data indicates carriers are repositioning effectively. Resulting in surpluses or balanced markets instead of tight capacity. Rates remain firm due to seasonal urgency, even with sufficient truck availability.

Foodservice, Consumer Demand, Produce

Consumers are pulling back, leading to a slowdown in the food services sector. Sysco cut its 2025 sales growth forecast by nearly 30%, with a 2% drop in shipment volumes. The Restaurant Performance Index fell to 98.8 in February, reflecting decreased sales and a pessimistic outlook.

Kevin Hourican, Sysco’s Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer said:

“Sysco’s Q3 results were negatively impacted by multiple factors: California wildfires, significantly adverse weather, and more recently, weakening consumer confidence. Each of these variables had a negative impact on foot traffic to restaurants which led the quarter, in total, to fall short of our internal expectations”

June marks the start of peak produce season across the southern U.S., eventually pushing up demand and rates for outbound dry van and refrigerated freight. Carriers are prioritizing high-liability, time-sensitive produce loads, chasing better rates. Meanwhile, shippers looking to move freight into the South may benefit from abundant capacity at competitive rates, as carriers seek strong reload opportunities

Maritime & Rail

FreightWaves Q2 2025 Shipper Rate Report states that Container bookings from China surged 50% following a temporary 90-day U.S. tariff reduction on Chinese goods. The tariff rate dropped from 145% to 30%, leading importers to rush restocking efforts and effectively pull the traditional Q3 peak season forward into Q2.

Intermodal demand had been tapering due to earlier import slowdowns, but it’s now expected to rebound as shippers take advantage of the tariff reprieve. With the pause lasting until August 10th, restocking and frontloading could converge to drive a surge in trucking demand in late Q2.

Key Takeaways

• Dry Van: Truckload Capacity Index fell to 74.9%, its lowest since 2014, as carriers reduce fleet size to match softer demand. Q2 spot rates are projected to decline by 3–7% from Q1, potentially falling below 2024 levels.
• Reefer: Watermelon season is ramping up out of Florida, Texas, and Georgia, but reefer volumes dropped 25% last week. Despite the drop, truck postings rose 5%, indicating readily available capacity.
• Southern Produce: June marks peak harvest season in the South, with rising demand and rate pressure for outbound reefer and dry van freight. Carriers are flocking to these regions to haul high-liability produce, making inbound freight cheaper.
• Maritime/Rail: Container bookings from China surged 50% following a temporary reduction in U.S. tariffs pulling peak season demand into Q2.