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As we move through early 2026, the freight market remains in a slow and uneven recovery phase rather than a clear turnaround. Across dry van, reefer, and intermodal, 2025 largely mirrored 2024 with soft demand, ample capacity, and continued pricing pressure despite brief seasonal disruptions. While forecasts point to modest rate improvement in 2026, most indicators suggest normalization will be gradual and highly lane-specific, not broad-based. The market is beginning to rebalance, but leverage has not meaningfully shifted yet.

DRY VAN

2025 looked a lot like 2024. Soft demand, plenty of trucks, and shippers holding most of the leverage. Spot rates stayed below contract for most of the year, and while seasonal bumps occurred, nothing created a lasting shift. Contract rates largely hit a floor, leaving many carriers operating at or near breakeven.

Looking ahead to 2026, forecasts are cautiously optimistic. Most projections show spot rates increasing roughly 2–6% at peak periods, not as a sustained move. Contract rates are expected to rise around 2% by late 2026, think Q3–Q4. The spot–contract gap is expected to narrow, but not fully flip unless a major disruption occurs. Overall, expectations point to more of the same which seasonality tied to specific regions and holidays, with a gradual and uneven recovery, not a dramatic rebound.

REEFER

Reefer freight in 2025 was soft overall, though volatility remained higher than van which is typical given regional and seasonal exposure (flowers, christmas, turkeys, seafood, etc). Tightness continues to be highly dependent on produce seasons and agricultural shifts, particularly across the Midwest, West Coast, Yuma, and Florida (where we’re already starting to see pressure build for flowers). Routing guide friction and tender rejections also tend to show up faster in reefer than van.

For 2026, DAT, RXO, and Arrive expect reefer to recover slightly ahead of van. Forecasts call for a spot rate increase between 2–5% during peak seasons and contract rates up roughly 2% by late 2026 (Q3–Q4). The gap between spot and contract is expected to compress faster than van, suggesting reefers are further along in recovery but only in specific regions and lanes. Early 2026 already feels like some reefer capacity has quietly exited the market, and RXO hints at a more “traditional peak” returning versus the muted cycles of 2024–2025.

RAIL & MARITIME

In 2025, import front-loading drove activity, particularly at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as shippers moved freight ahead of tariff risk. This briefly tightened intermodal capacity and rail volumes, but the momentum didn’t last and demand cooled once the pull-forward ended. Maritime volatility has been driven far more by policy and geopolitics than by consumer demand, especially with ongoing tariff uncertainty.

Heading into 2026, intermodal could become more attractive if truckload capacity tightens, but without a sustained demand shift, it’s unlikely to see a meaningful breakout on its own.

MACRO INDICATORS & MARKET SIGNALS

Weak demand remained the defining theme of 2025. Manufacturing lagged, retailers stayed cautious, and capacity remained oversupplied. That said, structural changes are forming beneath the surface with driver exits, fewer operating authorities, and historically low Class 8 orders could introduce future risk if demand rebounds.

Inflationary pressures around insurance, labor, and operating costs are also keeping rates from falling further, effectively raising the market floor. Immigration policy shifts and regional labor constraints are already showing up in certain produce-heavy markets, including Yuma.

We’ve also seen a notable flip in broker margins over the past few weeks, raising the question of whether this signals a broader shift or simply a temporary post-holiday reset. Probably the latter.

Technology continues to accelerate. AI, automation, dynamic pricing, and fraud prevention are no longer optional, especially during peak seasons and in tight regions where bad actors tend to surface. While tech improves efficiency and visibility, it does not create demand or capacity. Its real value lies in strengthening carrier relationships and making networks easier to operate within.

After years of a race-to-the-bottom pricing environment, early 2026 conversations suggest a growing focus on carrier stability over lowest cost, reflecting lessons learned during prolonged market pressure (we brokers can hope). The first half of January has already felt a little “funky,” and it’ll be interesting to see whether that evolves into a trend or fades as the market normalizes.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Demand stayed soft, capacity remained available, and rates largely found a floor rather than rebounding.
• Forecasted rate increases exist, but they’re modest, seasonal, and dependent on capacity exits and regional demand pockets. Spot–contract gaps may narrow, but a full flip likely requires a disruptive catalyst.
• Tariffs, trade decisions, and geopolitical factors will shape activity more than consumer demand in the near term. Driver exits, fewer authorities, and low equipment orders are the structural indicators to watch heading into peak season.

Thank you for reading!

This update uses reliable industry data sources. I do my best to advise on the market and hope that this information can be considered as you formulate your own conclusions. If you would like to contact me about dry and refrigerated transportation, crossdocking, and cold storage solutions, or any other full truckload transportation needs, please reach out to bella.montoya@aandztrucking.com with your questions and comments!