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The 2025 holiday season stress test highlighted a freight market that looked very different from last year. Severe weather and other seasonal factors drove a sharp increase in tender rejections, pushing more freight into the spot market and driving rates higher. Carriers also acted more aggressively with pricing as spot market leverage increased, ultimately sending December spot rates to multi-year highs.

By mid-January, some of the post-holiday volatility had begun to ease, but a major winter storm threatened that normalization. Widespread ice and snow caused capacity disruptions and heightened rate volatility, especially in regions unaccustomed to winter weather. Additionally, pent-up demand from delayed shipments drove further cost fluctuations once freight reentered the market. The market’s holiday response showed its increased vulnerability. That said, a truly sustained disruption would still require either a major demand catalyst or a significant capacity event timed with peak seasonal demand, such as the summer shipping peak. It looks like even small disruptions are creating larger reactions with longer times to a full recovery.

TRUCKLOAD DEMAND

December demand was driven more by seasonal disruption than by true volume growth. Rising tender rejections pushed more freight into the spot market through early January, while contract volumes have yet to fully rebound after the holidays.

Supply tightened through December due to elevated operating costs, increased regulatory scrutiny, and winter weather, compounded by drivers taking time off for holidays and driver crackdowns. These factors contributed to the highest spot rate volatility in several years. The winter storm disrupted capacity further and created issues with carrier cycles and location of typical capacity.

Spot rates surged in December due to seasonal pressures and aggressive carrier pricing, with reefer rates crossing contract levels for the first time in two years. These rates also surged in January and have began to ease in February and March as seasonal pressures fade. The winter storms are influencing how quickly a back to normal level will occur.

REEFER

DAT reported, reefer load post volumes declined 10% week over week, though activity remains well above last year’s levels. Equipment availability increased slightly, easing the load-to-truck ratio to 23.16. Despite softer volume metrics, spot rates moved higher as extreme winter weather disrupted operations across large parts of the country. Sub-zero temperatures slowed transit times, increased fuel consumption, and drove mechanical issues, leading to a temporary freeze-risk pricing premium. As a result, the national average reefer spot rate climbed to $2.57 per mile, remaining significantly higher than both last year and historical norms.

Produce markets continue to show clear signs of tightening. For the fourth consecutive week, major growing regions in California, Florida, and South Texas reported truck shortages, pushing rates higher. California shippers are facing limited capacity across key produce regions. Florida is having some of the largest increases where shipments to Atlanta have jumped 83%, to Chicago 60% and since there is such a wide variety of produce out of Florida there is strong competition as winter vegetable production is peaking. South Texas crossings from Mexico remain extremely tight, with elevated rates reflecting persistent capacity constraints. These produce-driven shortages suggest that seasonal agriculture is creating localized tightness and supporting higher reefer rates in key lanes.

DRY VAN

In the dry van market, capacity tightened for a second straight week as Winter Storms Fern and Gianna disrupted operations across large parts of the Midwest, Plains, and Southeast. Extreme cold constrained capacity and slowed transit times, while load post volumes increased slightly at month-end and remained well above last year’s levels. Equipment availability rose at a similar pace, keeping the national load-to-truck ratio at 10.65.

Spot rates reflected this tightening, with national dry van linehaul rates climbing to $2.08 per mile, driven largely by weather-related disruptions along the East Coast. Rates remain significantly elevated compared to historical norms, running roughly 25% above last year and more than 20% above the pre-pandemic five-year average. High-volume lanes saw similar upward pressure, with the most active routes averaging $2.32 per mile.

The Midwest continues to lead the market. Spot rates across key Midwestern states jumped sharply and are now well above the national average, supported by heavy manufacturing activity tied to construction, agriculture, steel, and defense-related freight. Load movement surged at month-end, outperforming last year by a wide margin.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Manufacturing contracted further in December, while consumer spending held up, supported by stronger-than-expected holiday retail sales. Early signs of labor market softening also emerged late in the quarter. A rebound in manufacturing will likely depend on clarity around trade and tariff policy, with any positive impact on freight demand expected to lag by several months. Key risks include tariff-driven inflation, while potential upside drivers include consumer strength, Fed rate cuts, government stimulus, and favorable policy rulings.

This macro uncertainty continues to shape carrier decision-making, particularly around capital investment and fleet growth. Feedback from C.H. Robinson’s Voice of the Carriers reinforces a trend that has been consistent across recent market updates: fleet growth decisions remain highly intentional. Many carriers have reduced equipment counts over the past 18–36 months and are unwilling to re-expand without clear, sustained signs of market improvement. Where growth does occur, it is expected to be incremental and lane-specific, driven by proven demand rather than speculation. Carriers are not planning to scale through new equipment orders. Instead, any capacity increases are more likely to come from better utilization of existing assets, redeploying trucks across regions or optimizing cycles, rather than adding new equipment orders.

This aligns with broader industry data showing stagnant to declining new truck orders, a theme that has remained consistent throughout my market updates. High equipment costs, elevated interest rates, insurance pressures, and regulatory uncertainty continue to discourage fleet expansion.

It appears that capacity may appear adequate during normal conditions, but it remains structurally fragile. With limited willingness to add trucks, even small demand shifts or weather disruptions can quickly tighten the market and drive rate volatility. Definitely a dynamic we’ve already seen play out this winter.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Weather-Driven Volatility: Winter storms continue to trigger outsized rate swings and slower normalization.
• Seasonal Produce Pressure: Ag activity in CA, FL, and South TX is tightening reefer capacity and supporting higher spot rates.
• Manufacturing Uncertainty: Ongoing contraction limits freight demand, with recovery tied to trade and tariff clarity.
• Carrier Caution: Intentional fleet sizing and stagnant truck orders mean disruptions will tighten the market faster.

Thank you for reading!

This update uses reliable industry data sources. I do my best to advise on the market and hope that this information can be considered as you formulate your own conclusions. If you would like to contact me about dry and refrigerated transportation, crossdocking, and cold storage solutions, or any other full truckload transportation needs, please reach out to bella.montoya@aandztrucking.com with your questions and comments!