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The freight market is in an odd middle ground right now. Demand isn’t collapsing, but it’s also not showing the kind of growth that would tighten capacity or drive meaningful rate recovery. Shippers are staying cautious with volume, carriers are stretching resources to stay profitable, and the entire industry feels like it’s waiting for the next major shift. This uncertainty is creating a market where consistency is hard to rely on, and planning requires more flexibility than ever.

Dry Van Market

Dry van demand remains soft, weighed down by muted retail and manufacturing volumes. Seasonal bumps, like the Thanksgiving surge, appeared and faded quickly. Outbound tender volumes are down about 17% year over year, with contract load acceptance reflecting a similar decline.

Tender rejections increased slightly, pointing to pockets of capacity strain in key markets. Chicago reached 8.4%, while Atlanta, Dallas, and Los Angeles also saw higher rejection rates. Contract rates, however, remain mostly flat, averaging about $2.32 per mile, up just 1.3% year over year.

Dry van linehaul rates bumped up, due to the holiday, $0.07 last week to an average of $1.75 per mile, only about $0.05 higher than this time last year. On DAT’s top 50 high-volume lanes, rates climbed to $2.02 per mile, running $0.27 above the national rolling average. The Midwest, which is always a reliable early indicator, saw even stronger movement, with spot rates up $0.06 to $1.97 per mile, putting the region $0.22 above national averages and hinting at where broader market trends may be headed next.

Reefer Market

Reefer rejection rates followed normal seasonal patterns through October before softening in early November. Aside from pockets of tightness tied to holiday food shipments and freeze-protect freight, overall capacity remains more than sufficient to handle short-term disruptions, states Arrive in their November Market Update. Reefer markets should see the most seasonal disruption through December, while van markets may experience brief pressure around holidays and winter storms. Strong capacity levels should keep disruptions contained, but the market remains vulnerable once volume eventually turns upward Long-term risks are still present: equipment orders remain below replacement levels, and regulatory uncertainty could tighten capacity once demand eventually rebounds.

DAT reported

“The national 7-day rolling average rate settled at $2.13 per mile last week, marking a $0.05 per mile increase. This is approximately $0.07/mile, or 3%, higher than reefer spot rates recorded during the same period last year.”

Reefer trailers remain in high demand year-round, but winter adds extra pressure for freeze protection. Capacity is expected to tighten across the Midwest and Northern states as temperatures drop and seasonal food shipments rise. In the Pacific Northwest, reefers focus heavily on winter crops like potatoes, apples, squash, and Christmas trees, which can push outbound rates even higher, sometimes doubling typical rates.

Freight Demand Trends & Equipment

ACT Reasearch’s Industry Forecast states that freight volumes softened through October as pre-tariff tightness unwound. Industrial, consumer, and cross-border flows remain weak, and holiday freight is expected to be lighter than normal. Private fleets are gaining share due to improved routing and service stability. Dry van and general merchandise freight continue to face intense competitive pressure, with for-hire carriers posting recession-like margins.

Class 8 production remains below replacement levels, slowly tightening capacity, but overall market capacity still exceeds current demand

The English Language Proficiency law has been around but began being enforced in late May of this year and we can see the increase in violations from the data above. Freight market volatility tied to the end of Q3 and the new non-domiciled CDL regulations has largely faded, and conditions have stabilized more quickly than expected. Long-haul markets felt the greatest impact from early-October disruptions, but even that activity settled once the U.S. Court of Appeals paused enforcement of the rule. With low demand, soft rates, and easing regulatory pressure, the market is unusually calm for this time of year states Arrive.

Truckload capacity tightening partly stems from external pressures like immigration enforcement and bankruptcies, but also from equipment and fleet contraction. Trailer and Class‑8 truck orders remain down sharply compared with replacement levels, which could squeeze capacity further over time in FreightWaves’s State of the Industry Report.

Given all this, while short‑term volatility is mostly reactive to spot events, weather, regulations rather than cyclical, there’s a real chance that if multiple pressures align like fleet contraction and seasonal demand, we could see capacity strain or sharp rate swings by early 2026.

Maritime, Ocean Containers & Intermodal

In November’s State of the Industry Report, FreightWaves noted that the international container market is showing signs of imbalance. Volumes inbound to the U.S. have slowed, container rates have declined, and global export patterns, particularly from China, are shifting away from the U.S. As a result, U.S. import container volumes are dropping, and Asia-to-U.S. container rates are well below last year’s levels. For import-dependent freight like produce, retail goods, and processed foods, this softness translates to less ocean-to-truckload volume, potentially suppressing dry van and reefer demand in certain lanes through the end of 2025.

Cass Index

The October 2025 Cass Freight Index shows that overall shipment volumes are down, with year-over-year declines of roughly 7–8%, signaling softer freight demand across North America. Despite lower volumes, freight expenditures remained roughly flat, which implies that rates per shipment are rising. The Truckload Linehaul Index also increased modestly, suggesting that baseline dry-van rates are creeping higher. This combination of lower volume but higher per-load cost reflects a market where carriers are consolidating shipments, shippers are shifting more freight to truckload from LTL, and capacity in certain lanes is tighter, especially in high-demand or seasonal sectors.

For supply chains, this means that while overall freight demand is weak, shipping costs per load are gradually increasing. Dry-van and TL lanes are seeing modest rate pressure, and carriers may prioritize larger TL loads over smaller LTL shipments. For temperature-sensitive freight like produce and foodservice, rising per-load costs and tighter capacity could make reefer lanes more expensive, particularly during seasonal peaks. Logistics professionals should focus on early capacity planning, strategic lane selection, and proactive rate management to mitigate risks and ensure reliable service through the end of 2025 and into Q1 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Market Overview: The freight market is stable but sluggish, with uncertainty keeping both shippers and carriers cautious heading into 2026.
• Dry Van: Demand remains weak, and rates are only seeing brief holiday-driven bumps, with contract pricing staying mostly flat.
• Reefer: Seasonal pressure is building, especially for freeze protection and holiday food freight, but strong capacity keeps disruptions contained for now.
• Freight Demand & Equipment: Freight volumes are soft, and although Class 8 production is below replacement levels, there’s still more capacity than demand.
• Maritime & Intermodal: Declining U.S. import volumes and shifting global trade patterns are reducing ocean-to-truckload demand across key lanes.
• Regulations & Capacity: Enforcement of new CDL rules and broader fleet contraction could create volatility if paired with seasonal demand spikes.